About the Authors.
Acknowledgements.
Preface.
PART 1 The Decision Context.
1 Introduction to Decision-making.
Introduction.
What is a Decision?
Uncertainty and Risk in Decision-taking.
Probability.
Rational Decision-taker.
Biases.
Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Decision-making.
Models.
Who Should Participate in a Decision Process?.
Overview of Text.
Further Reading.
2 Time Series Forecasting.
Introduction.
Creating a Time Series Forecast - Overview.
Data Types.
Identifying Trends.
Decomposition.
Finding the Seasonal Component.
Average and Moving Average Forecasts.
Simple Exponential Smoothing.
Exponential Smoothing for Data with a Trend.
Exponential Smoothing for Non-Stationary Data with Seasonality.
Standard Deviation of the Forecast.
Choosing Appropriate Forecasting Models.
Transforming Data.
Alternative Time Series Forecasting Techniques.
Summary.
Further Reading.
3 Explanatory and Qualitative Forecasting.
Introduction.
Quantitative Explanatory Forecasting.
Linear Regression.
Elicitation of an Expert's Probabilities.
Structured Group Processes.
Scenario Analysis.
Summary.
Further Reading.
PART 2 One-off and Repeat Decisions.
4 Inventory Management.
Introduction.
The Fixed Order Quantity Inventory System.
The Newsvendor Model.
The Economic Order Quantity Model with Known Stock-out Costs.
Summary.
Further Reading.
5 Payoff Matrices.
Introduction.
Payoff Matrices with Certainty.
Payoff Matrices with Multiple Future States and a Dominant Strategy.
Payoff Matrices with Strict Uncertainty.
Payoff Matrices with Uncertainty or Risk.
Choosing a Decision Criterion.
The Value of Perfect Information.
Sensitivity Analysis.
Summary.
Further Reading.
6 Linear Programming.
Introduction.
Solving the Linear Programme.
Corner Method.
Sensitivity Analysis.
Changing Constraints.
Changing the Objective Function.
Using Excel Solver.
Integer Programming.
Formulating Decision-making Problems as Linear Programmes.
Summary.
Further Reading.
7 Simultaneous Move Games.
Introduction.
Terminology.
Zero-sum Games.
Non-zero-sum Games.
Mixed Strategies for Players with Three or More Strategies.
Continuous Strategies.
N-Player Games.
Summary.
Further Reading.
PART 3 Sequential Decisions.
8 Robustness Analysis.
Introduction.
Robustness Analysis.
Robustness Analysis as a Framework: Literature Examples.
Further Reading.
9 Decision Tree Analysis.
Introduction.
Decision Tree Notation.
Constructing a Decision Tree.
Rolling Back a Decision Tree 1: Sequential Decision and Event Nodes.
Rolling Back a Decision Tree 2: Waiting for Uncertainty to Resolve.
Rolling Back a Decision Tree 3: Exploratory Actions and Posterior Probabilities.
Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis.
Univariate Sensitivity Analysis.
Bivariate Sensitivity Analysis.
N-Way (Multivariate) Sensitivity Analysis.
Summary of the Decision Tree Analysis Method.
Chapter Appendix. A Brief Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation.
Further Reading.
10 Sequential Games.
Introduction.
Extensive Form.
Rollback Revisited.
Asymmetry of Information.
Signals.
Signal Jamming and Screening.
Bargaining.
Summary.
Further Reading.
Appendix: Mathematics Revision.
References.
Index.
