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Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series Philip Hans Franses (Research Fellow, Research Fellow, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences)

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series By Philip Hans Franses (Research Fellow, Research Fellow, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences)

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series by Philip Hans Franses (Research Fellow, Research Fellow, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences)


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Summary

This is an advanced graduate textbook in econometrics. A large proportion of the data studied by econometricians are series of observations of the same variables made over time (time series). This book provides a comprehensive account of how to allow for seasonal fluctuations in these data by using periodic models.

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series Summary

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series by Philip Hans Franses (Research Fellow, Research Fellow, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences)

This book provides a self-contained account of periodic models for seasonally observed economic time series with stochastic trends. Two key concepts are periodic integration and periodic cointegration. Periodic integration implies that a seasonally varying differencing filter is required to remove a stochastic trend. Period cointegration amounts to allowing cointegration part-term adjustment parameters to vary with the season. The emphasis is on econometric models that explicitly describe seasonal variation and can reasonably be interpreted in terms of economic behaviour. The analysis considers econometric theory, Monte Carlo simulation, and forecasting, and it is illustrated with numerous empirical time series. A key feature of the proposed models is that changing seasonal fluctuations depend on the trend and business cycle fluctuations. In the case of such dependence, it is shown that seasonal adjustment leads to inappropriate results.

Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series Reviews

The book can be recommended to those who want a comprehensive introduction to modern analysis of seasonality or who want to give a post-graduate course on the subject. * Marten Lof, International Journal of Forecasting, 15, (1999). *
Franses' book takes the reader the whole way from fundamentals of time series analysis to the latest achievements, where the young author's own contribution is impressive ... The book gives many practical state of the art tricks and hints that an applied researcher will appreciate. * Marten Lof, International Journal of Forecasting, 15, (1999). *

Table of Contents

Concepts in time series analysis; an introduction to seasonal time series; seasonal adjustment; seasonal integration and cointegration; are seasons, trends and cycles always independent?; periodic autoregressive time series models; periodic integration; periodic cointegration.

Additional information

NLS9780198774549
9780198774549
0198774540
Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series by Philip Hans Franses (Research Fellow, Research Fellow, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences)
New
Paperback
Oxford University Press
1996-08-15
242
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
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