Preface
Prologue: The Certainty Myth
Quantitative Intuition (QI)
Why Combine Quantitative Analysis with Intuition
Biases from Working Intuitively
Biases from Working with Data
Chapter 1: Powerful Questions
Road to Powerful Questioning
Precision Questioning
The Power of Precision Questions
Building an Inquisitive Team Culture
The Smartest Person in the Room
Key Learnings from Powerful Questions
Chapter 2: Framing the Problem
IWIK: A Tool for Reasoning
The IWIK Process
Framing the Decision
Key Learnings from IWIKs
Chapter 3: Working Backward to Move Forward
Defining the Problem by Working Backward
Step 1: Create a Decision Tree
Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs
Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map
Harnessing Inside- versus Outside-of-the-Box Thinking
Working Backward: Taking the Road Less Traveled
Key Learnings from Working Backward from a Decision
Chapter 4: Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Part 1: Assessing the Data and Its Reliability
What Data Was Collected?
What Data Am I Not Seeing?
Can I Trust the Data and Analyses?
Part 2: Putting the Data in Context
Part 3: Pressure Testing Your Analysis
Key Learnings from Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator
Chapter 5: Developing Intuition: The Power of Approximation
The Power of Approximations: Approximating Market Sizing
Learning to Approximate
Approximating in Practice
Why Guesstimation Works
Getting Comfortable with Approximations
Consider Approximation in Context
Statistical Significance Doesn't Mean Managerial Relevance
Guesstimation in the QI Framework
Key Learnings from Learning to Approximate
Chapter 6: From Analysis to Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
What Is Synthesis?
Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line
Why Is Synthesis Hard?
How Do We Encourage Synthesis?
Moving from What? to So What? and Now What?
Key Learnings from Synthesis: Connecting the Dots
Chapter 7: The Decision Moment
Dimensions of the Decision Moment
The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk
The Third Dimension: Trust
Striving for Measurement across Time, Risk, and Trust
Allocating Time
Measuring Risk
Measuring Trust
Reversibility and the Decision Moment
Navigating Ambiguity and Uncertainty
From IWIKs to Decisions
Key Learnings from the Decision Moment
Chapter 8: Delivering the Decision
The Story Arc in Decision-Making
Inner Voice and External Reality
Inform versus Compel
Key Learnings from Delivering the Decision
Chapter 9: Chasing the Decision
Why We Wind Up Chasing the Decision
Strategy 1: Create the Case for the Decision
Strategy 2: Frame the Outcome
Strategy 3: Classify the Type of Decision
Strategy 4: Reduce the Scope of the Decision
Strategy 5: Right Size the Decision-Makers to the Decision Moment
Strategy 6: Pressure Test Decisions
Strategy 7: Seek Consent Not Consensus
The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion
Key Learnings from Chasing the Decision
Chapter 10: Building the Quantitative Intuition (QI) Team
The QI Skill Set
Building a QI Team
Your QI Role within Your Organization
Key Learnings from Hiring
Chapter 11: What's Next in Data-Driven Decision-Making?
Automation
Predictions and the Digital Twin
The Rise of Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking
Conclusion
EPILOGUE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INDEX