Series Foreword by Digby Jones ix
About the author xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgements xv
1 Challenging Routines 1
Success formulas 3
Frames of reference 4
2 Decision Making in Management Teams 15
Groupthink 17
Alleviating groupthink 25
3 Overcoming Overconfidence 29
Overconfidence 30
Confirmation bias 32
Hindsight bias 33
Expert predictions 33
Alleviating overconfidence 39
4 How to Think with Scenarios 43
Scenario planning 44
Scenario construction: the extreme World method 45
Using scenarios in decision making 49
Scenario construction: the driving-forces method 55
The benefits of scenario planning 62
5 Dealing with Decision Dilemmas 73
Avoiding difficult decisions 74
Case study of a management team facing a decision dilemma 76
Dealing with psychological reactions to difficult decisions 80
6 Expectation and Decision Making 85
Decision trees 86
Blame culture and risk taking 93
7 How to Make Trade-offs 105
Simplifying choices can result in poor decisions 106
Making trade offs 113
8 Harnessing the Minds of Managers 121
Strategy development 122
A technique for the facilitation of strategic thinking 123
The role of the facilitator 124
Lessons from this book 126
Notes 131
Appendix A 137
Appendix B 138
Appendix C 139
Index 141
