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The Analysis of Sports Forecasting William S. Mallios

The Analysis of Sports Forecasting By William S. Mallios

The Analysis of Sports Forecasting by William S. Mallios


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Summary

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters.

The Analysis of Sports Forecasting Summary

The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets by William S. Mallios

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

Table of Contents

Introduction: A Variety of Betting Lines.- I Models, Moralities, and Misconceptions.- II Modeling Concepts.- III Football.- IV Basketball.- V Baseball.- VI Selection of Athletes.- VII Financial Markets.- A.1 Time Series Analysis: Overview of Arma, Bilinear, and Higher Order Models.- A.1.1 Preliminary Comments.- A.1.2 Overview of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models.- A.1.3 Overview of Bilinear Models.- A.1.4 Approaches to Modeling Heteroskedasticity Through Time Varying Coefficients.- A.1.5 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.- A.1.6 Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.- A.1.7 ARMA Models with GARCH Errors.- A.1.8 Model Misspecification.- A.1.9 Least Squares Estimation for Non-Varying Coefficients.- A.1.10 Empirical Bayes Estimation for Time Varying Coefficients.- A.2 Multiple Time Series Equations.- A.2.1 Models Based on Wolds Decomposition Theorem.- A.2.2 Multiple, Higher-Order Systems of Time Series Equations.- A.2.3 Extensions to Rational Expectations.- A.2.4 Classification of Events According to Observed Outcomes and States of Nature in Currency Markets.- A.3 Quantification of Structural Effects in Regression Systems.- A.3.1 Preliminary Comments.- A.3.2 Structural and Reduced Systems: Exploratory Models and Assumptions.- A.3.3 Increasing Efficiency Through Restricted Systems: Adjustments for Intra Sample Biases.- A.3.4 Estimation in Structural Systems.- A.3.5 Examples of Model Ambiguity in Structural Systems.- A.3.6 Structural Experimental Design Reconsidered.

Additional information

NPB9780792377139
9780792377139
0792377133
The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets by William S. Mallios
New
Hardback
Springer
1999-12-31
294
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
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