Foreword xiii Preface xv
About the Authors xxi
Prologue 3
Chapter 0: Introduction 7
0.1 A World of Change 7
0.2 Creating Successful 21st-Century Systems 9
0.3 ICSM Distilled 16
0.4 Using the ICSM 25
0.5 Incremental ICSM Adoption Approaches 28
0.6 Examples of ICSM Use 29
0.7 How ICSM Might Have Helped a Complex Government Acquisition (healthcare.gov) 30
References 32
Part I: The Four ICSM Principles 35
Chapter 1: The First Principle: Stakeholder Value-Based Guidance 37
1.1 Failure Story: The Too-Good Road Surface Assessment Robot 38
1.2 Success Story: The Hospira Next-Generation Intravenous Medical Pump 42
1.3 The Fundamental System Success Theorem and Its Implications 47
1.4 The System Success Realization Theorem and Its Implications 49
References 55
Chapter 2: The Second Principle: Incremental Commitment and Accountability 57
2.1 A Failed Total-Commitment Project: Bank of America's MasterNet 59
2.2 A Successful Incremental-Commitment Project: The TRW Software Productivity System 63
2.3 The Two Cones of Uncertainty and the ICSM Stages I and II 69
2.4 Alternative Incremental and Evolutionary Development Models 71
2.5 Development as C2ISR 75
References 78
Chapter 3: The Third Principle: Concurrent Multidiscipline Engineering 81
3.1 Failure Story: Sequential RPV Systems Engineering and Development 84
3.2 Success Story: Concurrent Competitive-Prototyping RPV Systems Development 86
3.3 Concurrent Development and Evolution Engineering 89
3.4 Concurrent Engineering of Hardware, Software, and Human Factors Aspects 92
3.5 Concurrent Requirements and Solutions Engineering 94
References 96
Chapter 4: The Fourth Principle: Evidence- and Risk-Based Decisions 97
4.1 Failure Story: The Unaffordable Requirement 99
4.2 Success Story: CCPDS-R 101
4.3 Feasibility Evidence as a First-Class Deliverable 104
4.4 How Much of Anything Is Enough? 107
4.5 Summing Up the Principles 108
References 109
Part II: ICSM Life Cycle and Stage I: Incremental Definition 113
Chapter 5: The ICSM Life Cycle 115
5.1 ICSM Life Cycle 115
5.2 Comparison of ICSM to Other Life-Cycle Models 115
5.3 Stage I: Deciding Why, What, When, Who, Where, How, and How Much 119
5.4 ICSM Case Study 120
Chapter 6: Exploration Phase 123
6.1 What Is the Exploration Phase? 123
6.2 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Exploration? 126
6.3 Potential Major Risks to Watch for at the End of Exploration 127
6.4 How Exploration Scales from Small to Large, Complex Systems 128
6.5 Role of Principles in Exploration Activities 128
6.6 Exploration for the MedFRS Initiative 129
Chapter 7: Valuation Phase 133
7.1 What Is the Valuation Phase? 133
7.2 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Valuation? 135
7.3 Major Risks to Watch for at End of Valuation 136
7.4 How Valuation Scales from Small to Large, Complex Systems 137
7.5 Role of Principles in Valuation Activities 138
7.6 Valuation for the MedFRS Initiative 139
Chapter 8: Foundations Phase 143
8.1 What Is the Foundations Phase? 143
8.2 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Foundations? 146
8.3 Major Risks to Watch for at the End of Foundations 146
8.4 How Foundations Effort Scales from Small to Large, Complex Systems 147
8.5 Role of Principles in Foundations Activities 149
8.6 Foundations for the MedFRS System of Systems 150
8.7 Stage I Summary 152
Reference 152
Part III: Stage II: Incremental Development and Evolution 155
Chapter 9: Development Phase 157
9.1 What Is the Development Phase? 157
9.2 Ready to Release? 169
9.3 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Development? 171
9.4 Major Risks to Watch for during Development 171
9.5 How Development Scales from Small to Large, Complex Systems 172
9.6 Role of Principles in Development Activities 174
9.7 MedFRS Development 174
Reference 178
Chapter 10: System Production and Operations 179
10.1 What Is Production? 179
10.2 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Production? 180
10.3 Major Risks to Watch for during Production 181
10.4 What Is the Systems Operations Phase? 181
10.5 What Are the Potential Pitfalls during Operations? 183
10.6 Major Risks to Watch for during Operations 183
10.7 Production and Operations for the MedFRS Initiative 184
10.8 Stage II Summary 185
Part IV: Applying ICSM to Your Organization 189
Chapter 11: ICSM Patterns and Common Cases 191
11.1 ICSM Patterns 192
11.2 ICSM Common Cases 194
11.3 Common Case Examples 201
11.4 Summary: The ICSM Common Cases Overview 204
References 204
Chapter 12: ICSM and Your Organization 205
12.1 Leveraging Your Current Process Investments 205
12.2 Maximizing the Value of Your Organizational Knowledge 208
12.3 Where the Impact Is 208
References 210
Chapter 13: Evidence-Based Life-Cycle Management 211
13.1 Motivation and Context 211
13.2 Commitment Review Process Overview 212
13.3 Feasibility Evidence Description Development Process 213
13.4 Evaluation Framework for the FED 217
13.5 Example of Use 218
13.6 Applicability Outside ICSM 221
References 222
Chapter 14: Cost and Schedule Evidence Development 223
14.1 A Review of Primary Methods for Cost and Schedule Estimation 225
14.2 Estimations and the ICSM 228
14.3 The Bottom Line 233
References 233
Chapter 15: Risk-Opportunity Assessment and Control 235
15.1 The Duality of Risks and Opportunities 235
15.2 Fundamentals of Risk-Opportunity Management 236
15.3 Risk Management within ICSM 244
15.4 Risk and Opportunity Management Tools 245
15.5 Using Risk to Determine How Much Evidence Is Enough 247
References 247
Afterword 249
Appendix A: Evidence Evaluation Framework 253
Appendix B: Mapping between ICSM and Other Standards 261
Appendix C: A Value-Based Theory of Systems Engineering 277
Index 299
