Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis by Carroll Quigley
The Evolution of Civilizations is a comprehensive and perceptive look at the factors behind the rise and fall of civilisations. Quigley defines a civilisation as a producing society with an instrument of expansion. A civilisation's decline is not inevitable but occurs when its instrument of expansion is transformed into an institution -- that is, when social arrangements that meet real social needs are transformed into social institutions serving their own purposes regardless of real social needs.