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The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling Gunnar Bardsen (Central Bank of Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling By Gunnar Bardsen (Central Bank of Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)

Summary

Based on economic theory and time series econometrics, this book describes how inflation targeting has adapted to changing demands. A dynamic incomplete competition model is evaluated and built into a small econometric model to analyze the transmission mechanism, to evaluate monetary policy rules, and to explore the sources of forecast failure.

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling Summary

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling by Gunnar Bardsen (Central Bank of Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)

Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.

The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling Reviews

This book gives an excellent insight into the process of forming a high-quality, real-world macro-model then evaluating and using it. This is an important topic and makes this an important book. Clive W.J. Granger, Nobel Laureate

About Gunnar Bardsen (Central Bank of Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)

Gunnar Bardsen is Senior Advisor at Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) and Associate Professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics.; Oyvind Eitrheim, b. 1958, has been Director of Research at Norges Bank since 2001. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1996-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at University of California, San Diego (1990-1991). Eitrheim has been with Norges Bank since January 1984. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics. Eilev S. Jansen, b. 1948, is a Director at the Central Bank of Norway and a Professor at Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1983-1988) and Director of Research (1988-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at London School of Economics (1975-76), University of California (1993-93,2003-04), and the European Central Bank, Frankfurt (2003). Other affiliations include Department of Economics, University of Oslo (1972-77, 2001-02) and Stastitics Norway (1978-82). He has published papers in international journals and books and he is a co-author of The econometrics of incomplete time-series/cross-section data (with Erik Biorn). Ragnar Nymoen, b. 1957, is Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has published papers in macroeconomics and econometrics. In the period 1985-1996, he worked as an economists in the Research Department in Central Bank of Norway.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ; 2. Methodological issues of large scale macromodels ; 3. The Norwegian main-course model ; 4. The Phillips curve ; 5. Wage bargaining and price setting ; 6. Wage-price dynamics ; 7. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve ; 8. Money and inflation ; 9. Transmission channels and model properties ; 10. Evaluation of monetary policy rules ; 11. Forecasting using econometric models ; 12. Appendices

Additional information

NPB9780199246496
9780199246496
0199246491
The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling by Gunnar Bardsen (Central Bank of Norway and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)
New
Hardback
Oxford University Press
2005-04-14
368
N/A
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