Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making 1
The Anatomy of Decisions 1
System 1 and System 2 Thinking 3
The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality 5
Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics 7
An Outline of Things to Come 10
Chapter 2 Overconfidence 14
The Mother of All Biases 14
Overprecision 16
Overestimation 22
Overplacement 26
Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making 28
Chapter 3 Common Biases 31
Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic 34
Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic 38
Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic 46
Integration and Commentary 57
Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness 60
Inattentional Blindness 65
Change Blindness 66
Focalism and the Focusing Illusion 67
Bounded Awareness in Groups 69
Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings 71
Discussion 81
Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences 82
Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices 85
We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty 87
Framing and The Overselling of Insurance 90
What's It Worth to You? 91
The Value We Place on What We Own 93
Mental Accounting 94
Rebate/Bonus Framing 96
Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals 98
Conclusion and Integration 100
Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making 103
When Emotion and Cognition Collide 105
Self-Serving Reasoning 112
Emotional Influences on Decision Making 114
Summary 117
Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment 119
The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm 121
The Competitive Escalation Paradigm 123
Why Does Escalation Occur? 127
Integration 131
Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making 132
Perceptions of Fairness 133
When We Resist Unfair Ultimatums 135
When We are Concerned about the Outcomes of Others 139
Why do Fairness Judgments Matter? 142
Bounded Ethicality 143
Overclaiming Credit 145
In-Group Favoritism 146
Implicit Attitudes 147
Indirectly Unethical Behavior 151
When Values Seem Sacred 152
The Psychology of Conflicts of Interest 154
Conclusion 158
Chapter 9 Common Investment Mistakes 160
The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions 162
Active Trading 170
Action Steps 171
Chapter 10 Making Rational Decisions in Negotiations 175
A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations 176
Claiming Value in Negotiation 179
Creating Value in Negotiation 180
The Tools of Value Creation 185
Summary and Critique 191
Chapter 11 Negotiator Cognition 193
The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiation 193
The Framing of Negotiator Judgment 195
Escalation of Conflict 196
Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation 198
Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation 200
Anchoring in Negotiation 203
Conclusions 205
Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making 206
Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools 208
Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise 213
Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment 216
Strategy 4: Reason Analogically 219
Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View 222
Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others 223
Strategy 7: Nudge Wiser and More Ethical Decisions 226
Conclusion 228
References 231
Index 261
Index 743
Subject Index 751
