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Uncertainty Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)

Uncertainty By Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)

Uncertainty by Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)

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Summary

Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained in this book which outlines its source and nature, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviews methods of analyzing uncertainty.

Uncertainty Summary

Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis by Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

Uncertainty Reviews

'This book is a significant contribution to the exploration of the basic issues and constitutes an important addition to the technical literature addressing uncertainty.' Joseph Fragola, IEEE Spectrum
'Uncertainty is a risk analysis textbook ... written to serve as a basic text for students as well as a reference work for practitioners and researchers (it) succeeds both in providing an excellent basis for policy analysis and in drawing upon a variety of case studies that will be of interest to risk researchers.' Journal of Economic Literature

Table of Contents

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.

Additional information

NPB9780521365420
9780521365420
0521365422
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis by Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)
Millett Granger Morgan (Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania)
New
Hardback
Cambridge University Press
1990-08-31
348
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
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Customer Reviews - Uncertainty