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Debt Games Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)

Debt Games By Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)

Debt Games by Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)

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Summary

This book explains the significant variation that has emerged over time and across cases in international debt rescheduling during the last one hundred and seventy years. Based on a novel situational theory of bargaining, Professor Aggarwal provides a method to deduce actors' payoffs in different bargaining situations to develop 'debt games' which are then used to predict negotiating outcomes.

Debt Games Summary

Debt Games: Strategic Interaction in International Debt Rescheduling by Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)

International debt rescheduling, both in earlier epochs and our present one, has been marked by a flurry of bargaining. In this process, significant variation has emerged over time and across cases in the extent to which debtors have undertaken economic adjustment, banks or bondholders have written down debts, and creditor governments and international organizations have intervened in negotiations. Debt Games develops and applies a situational theory of bargaining to analyze the adjustment undertaken by debtors and the concessions provided by lenders in international debt rescheduling. This approach has two components: a focus on each actor's individual situation, defined by its political and economic bargaining resources, and a complementary focus on changes in their position. The model proves successful in accounting for bargaining outcomes in eighty-four percent of the sixty-one cases, which include all instances of Peruvian and Mexican debt rescheduling over the last one hundred and seventy years as well as Argentine and Brazilian rescheduling between 1982 and 1994.

Debt Games Reviews

Combining rich historical detail with an innovative and broad ranging application of game theory, Aggarwal has brought penetrating new insight to the old issue of international debt negotiation. Nowhere will a reader find a more rewarding analysis of the strategic interaction between troubled debtors and their creditors. This is must reading for anyone interested in the complexities of international bargaining. Benjamin J. Cohen, University of California, Santa Barbara
Aggarwal's Debt Games provides an ambitious mapping of the empirical reality of international debt rescheduling into simple normal game models. His 'situational theory' goes well beyond standard case study methods through a greater specificity that allows him to achieve an impressive level of postdiction over a wide range of cases using only a few simple assumptions. And his candor about the limits of the assumptions and his predictions is both refreshing and illuminating. The result is an analysis that pioneers an innovative strategy for combining theory and evidence while helping us better understand debt rescheduling. Duncan Snidal, The University of Chicago
Debt Games is an ambitious and enlightening study of debt negotiations involving Latin American countries over a period of more than 150 years. Vinod Aggarwal systematically uses a strategic interaction model as the basis for a comparative analysis of debt negotiations, drawing on a vast range of empirical material to understand the sources of strategies. Debt Games will be rewarding reading for students of international and comparative political economy. Robert O. Keohane, Harvard University
It is well balanced, with a nice mix of abstract concepts, real world indicators, and empirical richness that goes beyond illustrative case studies. I have no doubt that one could make a different set of trade-offs between theoretical complexity and empirical applicability. But this impressive book should serve as a useful banchmark for years to come. Scholars and graduate students alike will find it to be a valuable source of modeling ideas that goes well beyond the examination of international debt rescheduling. Cedric Dupont, American political review

Table of Contents

Preface; Overview; Part I. Argument: 1. Examining the importance of epochs; 2. Debt games and play: toward a model of debt rescheduling; 3. A situational theory of payoffs and intervention decisions; 4. A theory of situational change; Part II. Epoch 1: the 1820s to the 1860s: 5. The intersection of high and low politics: Mexican debt rescheduling, 1824 to 1867; 6. Guano makes the world go 'round: Peruvian debt rescheduling, 1823 to 1850s; Part III. Epoch 2: the 1860s to the 1910s: 7. From stability to chaos: Mexican debt rescheduling, 1867 to 1914; 8. To the victor go the spoils (and headaches): Peruvian debt rescheduling, 1875 to 1900s; Part IV. Epoch 3: the 1910s to the 1950s: 9. Riding on the storm: Mexican debt rescheduling, 1916 to 1942; 10. Years of false hope: Peruvian debt negotiations, 1930 to 1953; Part V. Epoch 4: the 1970s to the 1990s: 11. The good guys get tired: Mexico in the 1980s; 12. The politics of confrontation: Peru in the 1980s and 1990s; 13. Collision course: Argentina in the 1980s and 1990s; 14. The search for independence: Brazil in the 1980s and 1990s; Part VI. Implications: 15. Conclusion; Appendix; Bibliography.

Additional information

NPB9780521352024
9780521352024
0521352029
Debt Games: Strategic Interaction in International Debt Rescheduling by Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)
Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley)
New
Hardback
Cambridge University Press
1996-05-31
632
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
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