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Lost in a Gallup W. Joseph Campbell

Lost in a Gallup By W. Joseph Campbell

Lost in a Gallup by W. Joseph Campbell

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$31.09
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Lost in a Gallup Summary

Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections by W. Joseph Campbell

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024.

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Lost in a Gallup Reviews

"Campbell puts the glaring mistakes of the 2016 presidential polls in historical perspective in this accessible and well-informed survey of polling errors. . . .Newshounds closely following the latest 2020 predictions would be well-advised to read this bracing reality check." * Publishers Weekly *
"A fast-moving narrative history of some attempts to gauge public opinion amid electoral politics. . . .Campbells gaze goes far beyond the Beltway and back further in history than the astonishing election night four years ago." * Wall Street Journal *
"Campbells book is a tour de force on the history of presidential polling. * Civitas Institute *
"Campbell shows how other errors have bedeviled the polling industry since 1936 despite decades of advances in computer power and statistical sophistication. It is difficult to read Campbells book without empathizing with the pollsters and (crucially, as Campbell observes) the journalists and pundits interpreting and amplifying their conclusions." * Milken Institute Review *
"A lively account of the personalities and squabbles, the greatest hits and equally great misses, that marked pollings U.S. ascent. . . .Campbell provides a brisk historical tour of technical breakthroughs like probability sampling and new instruments such as the exit poll. It is not exactly a tale of progress." * Reviews in American History *
"Campbells book is well-written, impressively researched, and detailed. . . .Lost in a Gallupcomes alive as Campbell relays the internal critiques, jealousies, evaluations, and self-assessments of the pollsters." * Journalism History *
"Campbells journalistic style is engaging, and he covers a tremendous amount of ground. . . . [he] raises important and timely questions about both polling and journalism performance." * Public Opinion Quarterly *
"This extensively researched and engagingly written volume profiles early pioneers of pollinghighlighting their contributions, missteps, and non infrequent competitiveness and hubris." * The Journal of American History *
"An entertaining and informative peek into a recently much-maligned aspect of U.S. elections." * Publishers Weekly *

About W. Joseph Campbell

W. Joseph Campbellis an American writer, historian, and media critic who is the author of six other books, including the award-winningGetting It Wrong: Debunking the Greatest Myths in American Journalism.

Table of Contents

Contents

List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
Acknowledgments

Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections
1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the Babe Ruth of Survey Research
2. A Time of Polls Gone Mad: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936
3. The Defeat of the Pollsters: The Epic Fail of 1948
4. A Tie Would Suit Them Fine: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee
5. The Close Race That Never Happened: Miscalling the 1980 Election
6. Televisions Version of Dewey Defeats Truman: The Trifecta of 2000
7. President Kerry: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004
8. Gallup vs. the World: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012
9. The Night That Wasnt Supposed to Happen: The Shock Election of 2016
10. A Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years
Conclusion: Will It Happen Again?

Notes
Select Bibliography
Index

Additional information

NGR9780520397781
9780520397781
0520397789
Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections by W. Joseph Campbell
W. Joseph Campbell
New
Paperback
University of California Press
2024-02-20
368
N/A
Book picture is for illustrative purposes only, actual binding, cover or edition may vary.
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